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K League 2 · South Korea
Paju Citizen vs Busan I Park prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Paju Citizen host Busan I Park in the K League 2 (South Korea) on 10 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Paju Citizen 1–1 Busan I Park.
Going into the match, Paju Citizen had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Busan I Park had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Paju Citizen's last 10 and 3 of Busan I Park's last 10; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paju Citizen averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Busan I Park averaged 1.11 scored and 1.78 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.81 goals from Paju Citizen and 1.02 from Busan I Park. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 38%, against 26%, 27% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 89%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Paju Citizen (green) and Busan I Park (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paju Citizen | WDLDW | 0.70 | 0.90 | 30% | 30% |
| Busan I Park | LWLLD | 0.70 | 0.90 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 May 2026 · Busan I Park 4–1 Paju Citizen
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.