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1. Division · Cyprus
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia prediction and preview
19 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pafos host Apoel Nicosia in the 1. Division (Cyprus) on 19 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Pafos 0–0 Apoel Nicosia.
Going into the match, Pafos had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 12. Apoel Nicosia had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Pafos's last 10 and 7 of Apoel Nicosia's last 10; 5 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pafos averaged 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Apoel Nicosia averaged 1.00 scored and 2.10 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Pafos and 1.02 from Apoel Nicosia. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 23%, against 52%, 26% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pafos (green) and Apoel Nicosia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos | LWLWD | 1.50 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Apoel Nicosia | WDLWL | 1.80 | 1.80 | 70% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 22 May 2026 · Pafos 2–0 Apoel Nicosia
- 26 Apr 2026 · Apoel Nicosia 3–3 Pafos
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Division matches that day
- Omonia Nicosia vs Olympiakos · 19 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · 1. Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–2