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Serie B · Italy
Padova vs Carrarese prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Padova host Carrarese in the Serie B (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Padova 0–2 Carrarese.
Going into the match, Padova had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 17. Carrarese had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 4 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Padova's last 10 and 3 of Carrarese's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Padova averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Carrarese averaged 0.38 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Padova and 0.88 from Carrarese. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 29%, against 49%, 28% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Padova (green) and Carrarese (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.