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Liga 3 · Portugal
Pacos Ferreira vs Leça prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pacos Ferreira host Leça in the Liga 3 (Portugal) on 23 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.24, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Pacos Ferreira had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 13. Leça had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Pacos Ferreira's last 10 and 3 of Leça's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pacos Ferreira averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Leça averaged 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.91 goals from Pacos Ferreira and 1.36 from Leça. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 46%, against 37%, 29% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pacos Ferreira (green) and Leça (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira | WDDDL | 0.80 | 1.30 | 50% | 40% |
| Leça | WWWWL | 1.20 | 1.20 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.24 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.69 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| Pacos Ferreira Win | 38% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.