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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Ourense CF vs Arosa prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ourense CF host Arosa in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals — more than 0.5 goals in the first half. It was published at odds of 1.38, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ourense CF 0–0 Arosa.
Going into the match, Ourense CF had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Arosa had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ourense CF's last 10 and 5 of Arosa's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ourense CF averaged 1.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Arosa averaged 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from Ourense CF and 1.71 from Arosa. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 48%, against 48%, 26% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ourense CF (green) and Arosa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ourense CF | WLWWL | 1.20 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
| Arosa | LDLDW | 1.60 | 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Ourense CF Win | 48% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Ourense CF HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.