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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Ospitaletto vs Renate prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ospitaletto host Renate in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ospitaletto 1–1 Renate.
Going into the match, Ospitaletto had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 10. Renate had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Ospitaletto's last 10 and 6 of Renate's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ospitaletto averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Renate averaged 1.71 scored and 2.29 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.14 goals from Ospitaletto and 0.91 from Renate. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 14%, against 42%, 30% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ospitaletto (green) and Renate (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ospitaletto | WLDWW | 1.90 | 1.00 | 60% | 60% |
| Renate | LLDDL | 1.00 | 1.70 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.