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Primera B · Colombia
Orsomarso vs Popayan prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Orsomarso host Popayan in the Primera B (Colombia) on 12 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Popayan to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Orsomarso 1–0 Popayan.
Going into the match, Orsomarso had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Popayan had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Orsomarso's last 10 and 8 of Popayan's last 10; 1 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Orsomarso averaged 0.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Popayan averaged 1.88 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.90 goals from Orsomarso and 1.10 from Popayan. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 39%, against 44%, 29% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Orsomarso (green) and Popayan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 |
| Orsomarso HT & FT | 28% | 3.40 |
| 1-1 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.