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Segunda División · Uruguay
Oriental vs Uruguay Montevideo prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Oriental host Uruguay Montevideo in the Segunda División (Uruguay) on 18 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Oriental 1–1 Uruguay Montevideo.
Going into the match, Oriental had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Uruguay Montevideo had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Oriental's last 10 and 4 of Uruguay Montevideo's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Oriental averaged 1.46 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Uruguay Montevideo averaged 0.55 scored and 1.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from Oriental and 0.85 from Uruguay Montevideo. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 18%, against 56%, 25% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 54%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Oriental (green) and Uruguay Montevideo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oriental | LDWWD | 1.20 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
| Uruguay Montevideo | LLLLD | 0.60 | 1.70 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Jul 2026 · Uruguay Montevideo 1–1 Oriental
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.80 |
| Oriental Win | 54% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Oriental HT & FT | 37% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.