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USL Championship · USA
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Orange County SC host Monterey Bay in the USL Championship (USA) on 4 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Orange County SC 1–2 Monterey Bay.
Going into the match, Orange County SC had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 22. Monterey Bay had won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Orange County SC's last 10 and 8 of Monterey Bay's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Orange County SC averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Monterey Bay averaged 1.00 scored and 2.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.81 goals from Orange County SC and 1.73 from Monterey Bay. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 36%, against 49%, 26% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 88%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Orange County SC (green) and Monterey Bay (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | WLLDD | 1.00 | 2.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Monterey Bay | LLDDL | 1.10 | 2.10 | 80% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Jul 2026 · Monterey Bay 1–2 Orange County SC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Orange County SC Win | 49% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.