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Botola 2 · Morocco
Olympique Safi vs Chabab Ben Guerir prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Olympique Safi host Chabab Ben Guerir in the Botola 2 (Morocco) on 4 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Olympique Safi 1–0 Chabab Ben Guerir.
Going into the match, Olympique Safi had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Chabab Ben Guerir had won 4, drawn 6 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Olympique Safi's last 10 and 3 of Chabab Ben Guerir's last 10; 1 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Olympique Safi averaged 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Chabab Ben Guerir averaged 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Olympique Safi and 0.51 from Chabab Ben Guerir. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 41% and an away win at 20%, against 47%, 30% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Olympique Safi (green) and Chabab Ben Guerir (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Safi | DLLDD | 0.50 | 0.90 | 30% | 10% |
| Chabab Ben Guerir | WDDDD | 1.00 | 0.30 | 30% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.24 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 57% | 1.62 |
| Olympique Safi Win | 47% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.00 |
| Olympique Safi HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.