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Serie D - Girone D · Italy
Oltrepò vs Lentigione prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Oltrepò host Lentigione in the Serie D - Girone D (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.34, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Oltrepò 1–2 Lentigione.
Going into the match, Oltrepò had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 8 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 15. Lentigione had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Oltrepò's last 8 and 7 of Lentigione's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Oltrepò averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Lentigione averaged 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.13 goals from Oltrepò and 1.76 from Lentigione. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 51%, against 20%, 23% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Oltrepò (green) and Lentigione (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oltrepò | LLWLW | 1.13 | 1.88 | 63% | 63% |
| Lentigione | DLWWW | 1.50 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.40 |
| Lentigione Win | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.89 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.