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Torneo Federal A · Argentina
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Olimpo Bahia Blanca host San Martin Formosa in the Torneo Federal A (Argentina) on 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–1 San Martin Formosa.
Going into the match, Olimpo Bahia Blanca had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 6. San Martin Formosa had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Olimpo Bahia Blanca's last 10 and 5 of San Martin Formosa's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Olimpo Bahia Blanca averaged 0.91 goals scored and 0.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home San Martin Formosa averaged 1.33 scored and 1.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.70 from San Martin Formosa. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 36% and an away win at 24%, against 57%, 26% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Olimpo Bahia Blanca (green) and San Martin Formosa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpo Bahia Blanca | WWDDL | 1.10 | 0.60 | 50% | 20% |
| San Martin Formosa | DWDWL | 1.60 | 0.60 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Olimpo Bahia Blanca Win | 54% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.