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Copa Paraguay · Paraguay
Olimpia vs Sportivo Luqueno prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Olimpia host Sportivo Luqueno in the Copa Paraguay (Paraguay) on 1 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Olimpia Win — Olimpia to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Olimpia 1–1 Sportivo Luqueno.
Going into the match, Olimpia had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 12. Sportivo Luqueno had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Olimpia's last 10 and 4 of Sportivo Luqueno's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Olimpia averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Sportivo Luqueno averaged 0.90 scored and 1.30 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.60 goals from Olimpia and 1.25 from Sportivo Luqueno. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 16%, against 62%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Olimpia (green) and Sportivo Luqueno (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpia | WWWWD | 2.20 | 1.20 | 70% | 80% |
| Sportivo Luqueno | LWLLD | 1.10 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Sep 2026 · Olimpia 3–0 Sportivo Luqueno
- 23 May 2026 · Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Olimpia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.46 |
| Olimpia Win | 62% | 1.45 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Olimpia HT & FT | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.