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Liga Nacional · Honduras
Olancho vs Atletico Independiente prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Olancho host Atletico Independiente in the Liga Nacional (Honduras) on 11 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Olancho 1–1 Atletico Independiente.
Going into the match, Olancho had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Atletico Independiente had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 8, with 7 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Olancho's last 10 and 5 of Atletico Independiente's last 8; 1 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Olancho averaged 0.88 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Atletico Independiente averaged 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Olancho and 0.65 from Atletico Independiente. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 16%, against 58%, 22% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 33%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Olancho (green) and Atletico Independiente (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olancho | DDDLD | 0.70 | 0.80 | 50% | 10% |
| Atletico Independiente | LWDLD | 0.88 | 1.38 | 63% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.45 |
| Olancho Win | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.69 |
| Olancho HT & FT | 40% | 2.30 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.