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Virsliga · Latvia
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ogre United host BFC Daugavpils in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ogre United 1–2 BFC Daugavpils.
Going into the match, Ogre United had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 24. BFC Daugavpils had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Ogre United's last 10 and 5 of BFC Daugavpils's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ogre United averaged 1.25 goals scored and 2.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home BFC Daugavpils averaged 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Ogre United and 1.76 from BFC Daugavpils. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 52%, against 24%, 23% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ogre United (green) and BFC Daugavpils (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | WLDLL | 1.00 | 2.40 | 60% | 80% |
| BFC Daugavpils | DLDDL | 1.10 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 14 Aug 2026 · BFC Daugavpils 3–1 Ogre United
- 19 Jul 2026 · Ogre United 0–4 BFC Daugavpils
- 21 May 2026 · BFC Daugavpils 3–1 Ogre United
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.50 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 61% | 1.49 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.