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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nueva Chicago host Deportivo Maipu in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 5 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Nueva Chicago to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nueva Chicago 0–1 Deportivo Maipu.
Going into the match, Nueva Chicago had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Deportivo Maipu had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Nueva Chicago's last 10 and 4 of Deportivo Maipu's last 10; 1 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nueva Chicago averaged 1.08 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Deportivo Maipu averaged 1.27 scored and 1.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.59 goals from Nueva Chicago and 0.88 from Deportivo Maipu. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 39% and an away win at 39%, against 42%, 32% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nueva Chicago (green) and Deportivo Maipu (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nueva Chicago | WDLWL | 0.50 | 1.00 | 20% | 10% |
| Deportivo Maipu | WDDDL | 1.10 | 1.00 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Deportivo Maipu 1–0 Nueva Chicago
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.28 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Nueva Chicago Win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.