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League One · England
Notts County vs Oxford United prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Notts County host Oxford United in the League One (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Notts County 1–2 Oxford United.
Going into the match, Notts County had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Oxford United had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Notts County's last 10 and 6 of Oxford United's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Notts County averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Oxford United averaged 1.56 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from Notts County and 1.41 from Oxford United. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 42%, against 36%, 28% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Notts County (green) and Oxford United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | WLLDD | 1.00 | 1.10 | 70% | 30% |
| Oxford United | DDWWL | 2.00 | 1.20 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.