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Norwich vs Southampton prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Norwich host Southampton in the Championship (England) on 14 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Norwich 0–1 Southampton.
Going into the match, Norwich had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 23. Southampton had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Norwich's last 10 and 9 of Southampton's last 10; 9 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Norwich averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Southampton averaged 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.18 goals from Norwich and 1.54 from Southampton. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 44%, against 38%, 26% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Norwich (green) and Southampton (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | LLLLW | 1.80 | 2.30 | 70% | 90% |
| Southampton | WLWWD | 2.10 | 1.40 | 90% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.