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HNL · Croatia
NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
NK Slaven Belupo host HNK Rijeka in the HNL (Croatia) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK Rijeka.
Going into the match, NK Slaven Belupo had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 18. HNK Rijeka had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of NK Slaven Belupo's last 10 and 4 of HNK Rijeka's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home NK Slaven Belupo averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.77 conceded across 13 matches; away from home HNK Rijeka averaged 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.19 goals from NK Slaven Belupo and 1.66 from HNK Rijeka. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 47%, against 18%, 24% and 58% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between NK Slaven Belupo (green) and HNK Rijeka (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Slaven Belupo | LDLWW | 1.30 | 1.80 | 40% | 70% |
| HNK Rijeka | LWWDW | 1.80 | 1.30 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Apr 2026 · HNK Rijeka 2–0 NK Slaven Belupo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| HNK Rijeka Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.