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HNL · Croatia
NK Osijek vs Istra 1961 prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
NK Osijek host Istra 1961 in the HNL (Croatia) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: NK Osijek 1–3 Istra 1961.
Going into the match, NK Osijek had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 15. Istra 1961 had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of NK Osijek's last 10 and 6 of Istra 1961's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home NK Osijek averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Istra 1961 averaged 1.36 scored and 1.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.53 goals from NK Osijek and 1.45 from Istra 1961. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 35%, against 48%, 27% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between NK Osijek (green) and Istra 1961 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek | DDWLL | 1.90 | 1.50 | 50% | 60% |
| Istra 1961 | LWWDD | 2.10 | 1.50 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · NK Osijek 0–1 Istra 1961
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.