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HNL · Croatia
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb host Istra 1961 in the HNL (Croatia) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961.
Going into the match, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 17. Istra 1961 had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's last 10 and 6 of Istra 1961's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home NK Lokomotiva Zagreb averaged 1.79 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Istra 1961 averaged 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.20 from Istra 1961. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 28%, against 40%, 27% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (green) and Istra 1961 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | LLDWL | 1.30 | 1.70 | 60% | 50% |
| Istra 1961 | WLWWD | 2.20 | 1.40 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 1 Aug 2026 · Istra 1961 2–3 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 11 Apr 2026 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other HNL matches that day
- NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · HNL
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 1–1