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Cup · Russia
Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nizhny Novgorod host Shinnik Yaroslavl in the Cup (Russia) on 14 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nizhny Novgorod 4–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl.
Going into the match, Nizhny Novgorod had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 30 and conceding 11. Shinnik Yaroslavl had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 and 4 of Shinnik Yaroslavl's last 10; 9 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nizhny Novgorod averaged 3.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Shinnik Yaroslavl averaged 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.25 goals from Nizhny Novgorod and 0.98 from Shinnik Yaroslavl. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 14%, against 59%, 20% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nizhny Novgorod (green) and Shinnik Yaroslavl (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nizhny Novgorod | WWWWW | 3.00 | 1.10 | 70% | 90% |
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | WDLDW | 1.40 | 0.70 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Aug 2026 · Nizhny Novgorod 3–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 80% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 59% | 1.55 |
| Nizhny Novgorod Win | 58% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.58 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.