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Ligue 1 · France
Nice vs Strasbourg prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nice host Strasbourg in the Ligue 1 (France) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nice 2–1 Strasbourg.
Going into the match, Nice had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Strasbourg had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 24 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Nice's last 10 and 7 of Strasbourg's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nice averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Strasbourg averaged 1.42 scored and 2.42 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Nice and 1.02 from Strasbourg. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 23%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nice (green) and Strasbourg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | WLDLD | 1.00 | 0.80 | 20% | 40% |
| Strasbourg | LDWWL | 1.60 | 2.40 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 22 Apr 2026 · Strasbourg 0–2 Nice
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.