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EFL Trophy · England
Newport County vs Plymouth prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Newport County host Plymouth in the EFL Trophy (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Newport County 2–2 Plymouth.
Going into the match, Newport County had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Plymouth had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Newport County's last 10 and 5 of Plymouth's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Newport County averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Plymouth averaged 2.31 scored and 1.00 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.87 goals from Newport County and 1.95 from Plymouth. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 40%, against 19%, 24% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Newport County (green) and Plymouth (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | DWWDD | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Plymouth | WLWWW | 2.20 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Plymouth Win | 57% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.