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USL Championship · USA
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
New Mexico United host Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship (USA) on 4 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: New Mexico United 2–1 Phoenix Rising.
Going into the match, New Mexico United had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Phoenix Rising had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of New Mexico United's last 10 and 7 of Phoenix Rising's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home New Mexico United averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Phoenix Rising averaged 0.85 scored and 1.77 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.21 goals from New Mexico United and 1.18 from Phoenix Rising. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 18%, against 41%, 25% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between New Mexico United (green) and Phoenix Rising (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | LLDDD | 1.40 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Phoenix Rising | LLWDW | 1.20 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Jun 2026 · New Mexico United 4–0 Phoenix Rising
- 12 Apr 2026 · Phoenix Rising 3–0 New Mexico United
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| New Mexico United Win | 41% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.