Home › League stats › USL Championship › New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay
USL Championship · USA
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
New Mexico United host Monterey Bay in the USL Championship (USA) on 11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: New Mexico United 3–1 Monterey Bay.
Going into the match, New Mexico United had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 15. Monterey Bay had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of New Mexico United's last 10 and 8 of Monterey Bay's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home New Mexico United averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.19 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Monterey Bay averaged 1.07 scored and 2.14 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.27 goals from New Mexico United and 1.04 from Monterey Bay. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 15%, against 57%, 22% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between New Mexico United (green) and Monterey Bay (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | WLLDD | 1.50 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
| Monterey Bay | WLLDD | 1.20 | 2.00 | 80% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Aug 2026 · Monterey Bay 2–5 New Mexico United
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| New Mexico United Win | 57% | 1.60 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.