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Netherlands vs Serbia prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Netherlands host Serbia in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Netherlands 2–1 Serbia.
Going into the match, Netherlands had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 9 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 11. Serbia had won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5, with 3 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Netherlands's last 9 and 3 of Serbia's last 5; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Netherlands averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Serbia averaged 0.33 scored and 3.33 conceded across 3.
The 1X2 prices imply about 81% for Netherlands, 14% for the draw and 5% for Serbia once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Netherlands (green) and Serbia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | DWDDW | 2.00 | 1.22 | 89% | 67% |
| Serbia | LLLLL | 0.60 | 2.80 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Sep 2026 · Serbia 1–2 Netherlands
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Netherlands 1st Half Win | 64% | 1.44 |
| Netherlands HT & FT | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| 2-0 | 14% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.