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Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
Náxara vs Peña Sport prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Náxara host Peña Sport in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Náxara to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Náxara 1–0 Peña Sport.
Going into the match, Náxara had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 9 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 14. Peña Sport had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Náxara's last 9 and 7 of Peña Sport's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Náxara averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Peña Sport averaged 0.83 scored and 1.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Náxara and 1.18 from Peña Sport. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 33%, against 45%, 28% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Náxara | DLLLW | 1.22 | 1.56 | 44% | 56% |
| Peña Sport | WLWLD | 1.70 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| Náxara Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Náxara HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.