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Serie B · Brazil
Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nautico Recife host Vila Nova in the Serie B (Brazil) on 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nautico Recife 0–2 Vila Nova.
Going into the match, Nautico Recife had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Vila Nova had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Nautico Recife's last 10 and 1 of Vila Nova's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nautico Recife averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Vila Nova averaged 0.94 scored and 1.29 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Nautico Recife and 1.21 from Vila Nova. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 37%, against 35%, 31% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nautico Recife (green) and Vila Nova (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | LDWLD | 1.30 | 1.40 | 60% | 50% |
| Vila Nova | DWWWD | 1.50 | 0.60 | 10% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 21 Jun 2026 · Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico Recife
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.