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Prva Liga · Serbia
Napredak vs Loznica prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Napredak host Loznica in the Prva Liga (Serbia) on 5 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Loznica to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Napredak 3–0 Loznica.
Going into the match, Napredak had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 15. Loznica had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Napredak's last 10 and 6 of Loznica's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Napredak averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Loznica averaged 1.63 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.99 goals from Napredak and 0.89 from Loznica. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 30%, against 45%, 29% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Napredak (green) and Loznica (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
| Napredak HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.