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Serie A · Italy
Napoli vs Frosinone prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Napoli host Frosinone in the Serie A (Italy) on 10 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Napoli 3–0 Frosinone.
Going into the match, Napoli had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 11. Frosinone had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Napoli's last 10 and 7 of Frosinone's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Napoli averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Frosinone averaged 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Napoli and 1.29 from Frosinone. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 34%, against 66%, 21% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Napoli (green) and Frosinone (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Napoli Win | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.