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USL League One · USA
Naples vs Richmond Kickers prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Naples host Richmond Kickers in the USL League One (USA) on 7 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Naples 2–0 Richmond Kickers.
Going into the match, Naples had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Richmond Kickers had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Naples's last 10 and 8 of Richmond Kickers's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Naples averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Richmond Kickers averaged 1.00 scored and 2.93 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.94 goals from Naples and 1.21 from Richmond Kickers. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 23%, against 56%, 23% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Naples (green) and Richmond Kickers (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naples | WWDDL | 1.30 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
| Richmond Kickers | WLLLD | 1.40 | 2.30 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.60 |
| Naples Win | 56% | 1.60 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Naples HT & FT | 39% | 2.40 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.