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Thai League 2 · Thailand
Nakhon Pathom vs Muangthong United prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nakhon Pathom host Muangthong United in the Thai League 2 (Thailand) on 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Muangthong United to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Muangthong United.
Going into the match, Nakhon Pathom had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 6 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Muangthong United had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 8, with 6 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Nakhon Pathom's last 6 and 3 of Muangthong United's last 8; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nakhon Pathom averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Muangthong United averaged 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.99 goals from Nakhon Pathom and 0.56 from Muangthong United. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 19%, against 34%, 28% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nakhon Pathom (green) and Muangthong United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakhon Pathom | DDDDW | 0.83 | 1.00 | 33% | 33% |
| Muangthong United | WLWDL | 0.75 | 1.13 | 38% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
| Muangthong United Win | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.