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J-League Cup · Japan
Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nagoya Grampus host Fagiano Okayama in the J-League Cup (Japan) on 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nagoya Grampus 3–3 Fagiano Okayama.
Going into the match, Nagoya Grampus had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 18. Fagiano Okayama had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Nagoya Grampus's last 10 and 7 of Fagiano Okayama's last 10; 8 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nagoya Grampus averaged 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Fagiano Okayama averaged 1.35 scored and 1.76 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.26 goals from Nagoya Grampus and 1.68 from Fagiano Okayama. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 46%, against 42%, 26% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nagoya Grampus (green) and Fagiano Okayama (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | WWLLL | 1.30 | 1.80 | 70% | 80% |
| Fagiano Okayama | LWWLW | 1.60 | 1.10 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Aug 2026 · Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Fagiano Okayama
- 29 Apr 2026 · Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Fagiano Okayama
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.