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Iraqi League · Iraq
Naft vs Diyala prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Naft host Diyala in the Iraqi League (Iraq) on 9 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Naft to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Naft 2–0 Diyala.
Going into the match, Naft had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Diyala had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Naft's last 10 and 7 of Diyala's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Naft averaged 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Diyala averaged 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Naft and 0.65 from Diyala. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 15%, against 47%, 29% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Naft (green) and Diyala (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Apr 2026 · Diyala 1–0 Naft
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.27 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Naft Win | 45% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.