Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz prediction and preview

19 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance X2Odds 1.36Market probability 66%Final score 4–2

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Naft Gachsaran host Fard Alborz in the Azadegan League (Iran) on 19 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Fard Alborz to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Naft Gachsaran 4–2 Fard Alborz.

Going into the match, Naft Gachsaran had won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 15. Fard Alborz had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 4 conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of Naft Gachsaran's last 10 and 2 of Fard Alborz's last 10; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Naft Gachsaran averaged 0.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Fard Alborz averaged 1.38 scored and 0.25 conceded across 8.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.87 goals from Naft Gachsaran and 1.41 from Fard Alborz. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 48%, against 34%, 32% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Naft Gachsaran (green) and Fard Alborz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form27% – 73%

Attack17% – 83%

Defence40% – 60%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals50% – 50%

Overall strength35% – 64%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Naft Gachsaran	LDDLD	0.50	1.50	30%	30%
Fard Alborz	WLDWD	1.10	0.40	20%	20%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	68%	1.31
BTTS No	63%	1.45
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	58%	1.59
Fard Alborz Win	33%	2.67
Draw	32%	2.76
0-1	17%	5.46

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.