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Division Profesional - Clausura · Paraguay
Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 22:20 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nacional Asuncion host Deportivo Recoleta in the Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay) on 12 Oct 2026, 22:20 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta.
Going into the match, Nacional Asuncion had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 5. Deportivo Recoleta had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Nacional Asuncion's last 10 and 6 of Deportivo Recoleta's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nacional Asuncion averaged 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Deportivo Recoleta averaged 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.07 goals from Nacional Asuncion and 0.63 from Deportivo Recoleta. From that it rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 9%, against 51%, 27% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nacional Asuncion (green) and Deportivo Recoleta (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Asuncion | DDDWW | 1.80 | 0.50 | 30% | 40% |
| Deportivo Recoleta | LDWLL | 1.00 | 1.70 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Aug 2026 · Deportivo Recoleta 3–2 Nacional Asuncion
- 24 Apr 2026 · Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Deportivo Recoleta
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Nacional Asuncion Win | 53% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.