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Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
Nação vs Marcílio Dias prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nação host Marcílio Dias in the Copa Santa Catarina (Brazil) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Marcílio Dias Win — Marcílio Dias to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nação 0–0 Marcílio Dias.
Going into the match, Nação had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 18. Marcílio Dias had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Nação's last 10 and 8 of Marcílio Dias's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nação averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Marcílio Dias averaged 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Nação and 2.30 from Marcílio Dias. From that it rates a home win at 15%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 65%, against 16%, 23% and 62% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nação (green) and Marcílio Dias (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nação | LDLLD | 1.40 | 1.80 | 60% | 70% |
| Marcílio Dias | DWLWW | 2.00 | 1.50 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| Marcílio Dias Win | 63% | 1.45 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
| Marcílio Dias HT & FT | 42% | 2.20 |
| 0-1 | 12% | 7.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.