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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
NAC Breda vs MVV prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
NAC Breda host MVV in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: NAC Breda 1–0 MVV.
Going into the match, NAC Breda had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 20. MVV had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 25 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of NAC Breda's last 10 and 6 of MVV's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home NAC Breda averaged 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home MVV averaged 1.27 scored and 2.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.42 goals from NAC Breda and 1.12 from MVV. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 15%, against 70%, 19% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between NAC Breda (green) and MVV (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| NAC Breda Win | 69% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 53% | 1.73 |
| NAC Breda HT & FT | 50% | 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.