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3. Liga · Germany
MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
MSV Duisburg host Hoffenheim II in the 3. Liga (Germany) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: MSV Duisburg 3–2 Hoffenheim II.
Going into the match, MSV Duisburg had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 11. Hoffenheim II had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of MSV Duisburg's last 10 and 5 of Hoffenheim II's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home MSV Duisburg averaged 2.13 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Hoffenheim II averaged 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.12 goals from MSV Duisburg and 1.29 from Hoffenheim II. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 22%, against 52%, 24% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | WWLWW | 2.10 | 1.10 | 70% | 80% |
| Hoffenheim II | WWDLW | 1.50 | 1.50 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Apr 2026 · MSV Duisburg 3–1 Hoffenheim II
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| MSV Duisburg Win | 53% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.