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Premiership · Scotland
Motherwell vs Celtic prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Motherwell host Celtic in the Premiership (Scotland) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Motherwell 0–2 Celtic.
Going into the match, Motherwell had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 17. Celtic had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Motherwell's last 10 and 4 of Celtic's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Motherwell averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Celtic averaged 2.00 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from Motherwell and 2.17 from Celtic. From that it rates a home win at 20%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 58%, against 20%, 21% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Motherwell (green) and Celtic (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | LLLWD | 1.10 | 1.70 | 40% | 60% |
| Celtic | LLLWW | 1.70 | 1.30 | 40% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 May 2026 · Motherwell 2–3 Celtic
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Celtic Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.