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Championship · Scotland
Morton vs Raith Rovers prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Morton host Raith Rovers in the Championship (Scotland) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Morton 1–2 Raith Rovers.
Going into the match, Morton had won 0, drawn 1 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 19. Raith Rovers had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Morton's last 10 and 2 of Raith Rovers's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Morton averaged 0.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Raith Rovers averaged 0.89 scored and 0.78 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.47 goals from Morton and 1.63 from Raith Rovers. From that it rates a home win at 9%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 65%, against 16%, 24% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Morton (green) and Raith Rovers (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | LLLLD | 0.40 | 1.90 | 40% | 40% |
| Raith Rovers | LDWWL | 1.20 | 0.60 | 20% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Raith Rovers 3–2 Morton
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Raith Rovers Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.