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Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · Portugal
Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mortágua host Benfica Castelo Branco in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mortágua 0–1 Benfica Castelo Branco.
Going into the match, Mortágua had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 8 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Benfica Castelo Branco had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 7, with 10 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Mortágua's last 8 and 6 of Benfica Castelo Branco's last 7; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mortágua averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Benfica Castelo Branco averaged 1.50 scored and 2.25 conceded across 4.
The 1X2 prices imply about 39% for Mortágua, 29% for the draw and 32% for Benfica Castelo Branco once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mortágua (green) and Benfica Castelo Branco (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | LDWDW | 1.38 | 1.00 | 63% | 50% |
| Benfica Castelo Branco | LWLLW | 1.43 | 2.57 | 86% | 86% |
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Mortágua Win | 39% | 2.30 |
| 1-0 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.