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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Moreirense host GIL Vicente in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 9 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente.
Going into the match, Moreirense had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 18. GIL Vicente had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Moreirense's last 10 and 4 of GIL Vicente's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Moreirense averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home GIL Vicente averaged 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.96 goals from Moreirense and 1.27 from GIL Vicente. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 42%, against 29%, 29% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Moreirense (green) and GIL Vicente (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | DWLLW | 1.30 | 1.80 | 60% | 70% |
| GIL Vicente | DLLDW | 0.90 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Jul 2026 · GIL Vicente 2–2 Moreirense
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.