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Liga MX · Mexico
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca prediction and preview
19 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Monterrey host CF Pachuca in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 19 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Monterrey 2–1 CF Pachuca.
Going into the match, Monterrey had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. CF Pachuca had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Monterrey's last 10 and 6 of CF Pachuca's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monterrey averaged 1.91 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home CF Pachuca averaged 1.31 scored and 1.00 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.64 goals from Monterrey and 1.22 from CF Pachuca. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 27%, against 59%, 23% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Monterrey (green) and CF Pachuca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | DWLWD | 1.10 | 1.60 | 60% | 50% |
| CF Pachuca | DLDWW | 1.60 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Monterrey 1–3 CF Pachuca
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Monterrey Win | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.