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J2 League · Japan
Montedio Yamagata vs Vegalta Sendai prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Montedio Yamagata host Vegalta Sendai in the J2 League (Japan) on 11 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Montedio Yamagata 0–1 Vegalta Sendai.
Going into the match, Montedio Yamagata had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Vegalta Sendai had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Montedio Yamagata's last 10 and 7 of Vegalta Sendai's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Montedio Yamagata averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Vegalta Sendai averaged 2.00 scored and 1.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Montedio Yamagata and 1.40 from Vegalta Sendai. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 38%, against 25%, 27% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Montedio Yamagata (green) and Vegalta Sendai (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montedio Yamagata | LLWLL | 1.40 | 1.20 | 40% | 50% |
| Vegalta Sendai | WWWDL | 2.10 | 1.20 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · Vegalta Sendai 1–0 Montedio Yamagata
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.