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Primera Premier · Mexico
Montañeses vs Tapachula prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Montañeses host Tapachula in the Primera Premier (Mexico) on 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.52, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Montañeses 2–1 Tapachula.
Going into the match, Montañeses had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 7 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Tapachula had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 8, with 10 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Montañeses's last 7 and 3 of Tapachula's last 8; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Montañeses averaged 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Tapachula averaged 0.33 scored and 2.67 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.55 goals from Montañeses and 1.20 from Tapachula. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 15%, against 49%, 25% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Montañeses (green) and Tapachula (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montañeses | LWLLD | 1.29 | 1.86 | 86% | 71% |
| Tapachula | LLWLL | 1.25 | 2.00 | 38% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.52 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.49 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Montañeses Win | 49% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.