Home › League stats › Liga de Expansión MX › Monarcas vs Tlaxcala
Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Monarcas vs Tlaxcala prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Monarcas host Tlaxcala in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 4 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Monarcas Win — Monarcas to win. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Monarcas 1–1 Tlaxcala.
Going into the match, Monarcas had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 11. Tlaxcala had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Monarcas's last 10 and 8 of Tlaxcala's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monarcas averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Tlaxcala averaged 0.88 scored and 2.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.39 goals from Monarcas and 1.18 from Tlaxcala. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 17%, against 61%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Monarcas (green) and Tlaxcala (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Monarcas 0–0 Tlaxcala
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| Monarcas Win | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.59 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.66 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Monarcas HT & FT | 44% | 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.