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Primera División · Venezuela
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Monagas SC host Estudiantes de Merida FC in the Primera División (Venezuela) on 11 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Monagas SC 2–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC.
Going into the match, Monagas SC had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 9. Estudiantes de Merida FC had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Monagas SC's last 10 and 5 of Estudiantes de Merida FC's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monagas SC averaged 1.44 goals scored and 0.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Estudiantes de Merida FC averaged 0.70 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Monagas SC and 0.77 from Estudiantes de Merida FC. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 19%, against 43%, 29% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 43%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Monagas SC (green) and Estudiantes de Merida FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monagas SC | LDWWW | 1.50 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
| Estudiantes de Merida FC | DLWLD | 1.00 | 1.00 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Apr 2026 · Estudiantes de Merida FC 3–2 Monagas SC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.