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Ligue 1 · France
Monaco vs Toulouse prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Monaco host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 (France) on 10 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Monaco 2–2 Toulouse.
Going into the match, Monaco had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 10. Toulouse had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Monaco's last 10 and 8 of Toulouse's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monaco averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Toulouse averaged 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.86 goals from Monaco and 1.11 from Toulouse. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 21%, against 59%, 23% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Monaco (green) and Toulouse (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · Toulouse 2–2 Monaco
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Monaco Win | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.